July 31, 2026
Orlando's midday ground stop fired, and a Jacksonville Center staffing trigger is now compounding Florida's storms
Subscribe
The 12:30 PM ET Friday update: Orlando went into a thunderstorm ground stop expected to end 1:30 PM ET (Friday's first live stop), Tampa ran stop-and-weather measures, the Northeast is fully clear for the first time this week, San Francisco and San Diego hold routine GDPs, and a Jacksonville Center South staffing trigger runs to 2 PM alongside the Florida convection.
What's happening: Orlando's ground stop
The FAA's live homepage lists one ground stoppage as of 12:30 PM ET: MCO, thunderstorms. Flightcheck's FAA-derived feed (last checked 12:29 PM ET) confirms the Orlando ground stop is in effect due to thunderstorms, expected to end 1:30 PM EDT, with departure delays of 31 to 45 minutes from weather. Tampa shows departure delays of 16 to 30 minutes, and the FAA homepage lists a TPA stop-type traffic management initiative (TM Initiatives:STOP:WX), though it has not escalated to a full ground stop. Every other major hub, ATL, ORD, DFW, DEN, LAX, JFK, SEA, EWR, LGA, BOS, MIA, PHX, LAS, CLT, MSP, DTW, PHL, IAH, SLC, DCA, IAD, BWI, AUS, BNA, MDW, FLL, is on time. The FAA ops plan (ADVZY 062, signed after the 11:15 AM ET planning webinar) lists MCO/TPA ground stops as possible through 8 PM ET, so Florida may re-fire after this first stop clears.
Why it matters: a Jacksonville Center staffing trigger is in the mix
The headline differentiator from Thursday's Florida ground stops is a staffing angle. ADVZY 062 lists a ZJX South Area staffing trigger running until 1800Z (2 PM ET). ZJX is the Jacksonville Air Route Traffic Control Center, the facility that works Florida's airspace, and "South Area" is the sector covering the southern part of the state where Orlando and Tampa traffic flows. A staffing gap there cuts the capacity to absorb thunderstorm reroutes, which is exactly the mechanism that turns an ordinary Florida summer storm into a formal ground stop rather than a manageable en-route delay. This is a different geographic mechanism from the PHL Area C and N90 staffing siege that drove Newark's multi-hour GDPs earlier this week. Las Vegas also carries an L30 TRACON staffing trigger until 4 PM ET (the same L30 that produced overnight GDPs earlier this cycle), though Las Vegas itself is on time.
The Northeast siege is broken
For the first time this week, the Northeast is entirely out of the FAA's terminal plan. ADVZY 062 dropped JFK, LGA, EWR, PHL, DCA, IAD, and BWI from the ground stop and delay program forecasts. Boston still carries low ceilings, and the ops plan published a BOS holding advisory, but the advisory notes cigs should improve after 2 PM ET and explicitly hedges that "terminal initiatives may be necessary" only if they do not. Flightcheck shows BOS on time with no active GDP, a sharp contrast to Thursday's day-long 110-minute low-ceiling program that was purged early Thursday night. The SPC Day 1 outlook (issued 1300Z) puts the only Slight Risk over the middle Mississippi Valley and Ozarks, with isolated severe storms possible across the southern Plains and the central/southern High Plains. There is no severe risk over any East Coast hub or over Florida, which means Orlando's stop is from ordinary convective storms, not a severe-rated system.
What to watch this afternoon
Two windows are in the FAA's plan. After 2 PM ET (1800Z), MIA, FLL, and DJT ground stops or delay programs are possible, which would extend the Florida disruption southward if the ZJX convection holds. After 4 PM ET (2000Z), Denver is possible for a ground stop or delay program, and the SPC's Slight Risk edge sits over the Colorado Front Range, so that watch has real weather behind it. MCO and TPA remain possible through 8 PM ET. Atlanta coded departure routes and swaps are possible after 1 PM ET, and O'Hare/MDW routes are possible through 10 PM ET, though both hubs are on time now. The next FAA planning webinar is at 1:15 PM ET (1715Z), which may sharpen the afternoon picture. Routine overnight programs: SFO GDP (37 min, fog and 01R/19L construction through Nov 15) until 6:59 PM ET, SAN GDP (40 min, volume) until 7:59 PM ET.
Rebooking basics
No Friday-specific airline waiver has been issued as of this update. The waivers still technically on the books are keyed to the July 27 to 29 Northeast storm and carry rebook deadlines of July 30 through August 1, so they are expiring today and tomorrow: Delta's Mid-Atlantic and NYC advisories, JetBlue's NY metro alert, and United's East Coast alert. If you are flying through Orlando or Tampa today, check your carrier's travel-alerts page directly, as airlines typically post Florida thunderstorm waivers only after the forecast firms post-webinar. For a live nationwide cancellation count, FlightAware's cancelled-today page is the tracker this feed uses. The DOT cash-refund rule applies if your flight is cancelled and you decline rebooking.
That’s the reading for this issue.
- Denver's ground stop ended on schedule, Boston's day-long delay program was purged early, and zero ground stops remain tonight Jul 31
- Denver's ground stop fired, Newark and Tampa ran stops until 6 PM, and Boston Logan holds at 110-minute delays Jul 30
- Florida's ground stops cleared and the 2PM Northeast watch fizzled, while Boston Logan holds at 110-minute delays and Denver becomes the 4PM risk Jul 30
- Florida's four biggest airports are in ground stops, the Northeast storm wall has cleared, and Boston Logan holds at 110-minute delays Jul 30
Want the next one?
Every new Flight Disruptions Now issue by email. One tap to unsubscribe.